Small Bank Novemeber Newsletter

Doug Hughes

Special Update 11/9/2007:

Banks continued their sell-off this week creating the best investment ideas in over 10 years.
They are also hitting other groups hard now, stocks like DBD, that make ATM’s for banks look interesting and a new issue MV, that does a lot of bank processing, that spun off from MI also looks attractive in this bloodbath, both also have options.

First a new one, TCF Financial Corp, (TCB $19.00) this is the first time in 9 years to get into this one.

So if you have new money to invest you only need to buy this one and retire now in 15 years. I mean go all in 200% now with both stock and Options that are in the money. They pay over a 5.1% cash dividend, management owns 9% of the stock, and the P/E is only 9, this is it, buy this one today. Insiders have been adding at higher levels and both the bank and insiders, will buy heavy now, again, as will we. Solid as a rock, great markets and a Canadian Bank will come after them for sure now, like Bank of Nova Scotia ($55 BNS), we would also “short” BNS as a hedge their stock is up 400% + since we first recommended back in 2003 and it is fully valued today.

First Merit ($20 FMER), this stock continues to be very strong in a weak market something must be happening or someone is building a large position, hold, wait for the deal and keep buying under $18.50.
Whitney Holding ($23.50 WTNY) hit a new low this week at $22.50, now we are all in. Both stock and options.
Earnings reports out this week on KFED, very solid, keep buying up to $12.50.
FBFS keep adding to up to $9.00, non-performing loans will go up, but if they sell $14.00+ at least.
TBHS keep adding under $11 a deal within 2 yeas at $16.00+
LION keep adding too under $13 a deal at $17 + within 1 year.
GBTB hold, till STI gets to at least $80.00 or they get taken themselves.
DSL buy December 30 calls under $5.00, look for a 'short' squeeze soon, and unload over $45.00, more risky for sure.
CAPB solid earnings report, a few non-performing, buy more under $11.00.
TIBB another new one in Florida has lost half its value, this month, time to accumulate under $7.50, worth $12.50+, they will make it.
IBCA, stay 'short' as a hedge for Florida till $13-$15 area or lower.
FFFD also came down 25% this week, maybe they know the guys at TCB, again makes no sense, the president stepped down, but with a P/E of 10, a 4.1% cash dividend and trading at just over book, they will be buying a ton of shares back like TCB will at these low level’s.
TMA we have covered all puts and staying out for now.
We have added to FITB, KEY and NCC calls not too much yet, but worth a shot. Mostly out of the money on these three. They all could be gone soon also.
Wow what a week, WTNY, NCC, TCB and KEY are also great trading stocks now at these low levels.

Again this is now the best time in ten years for large regionals, to go all in, with TCB in front now as the best idea/investment of the decade.

Douglas Hughes
203-942-5905 for any questions this weekend.
1-888-814-7575

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